Supreme Court Ruling Shakes Up Midterms: Why Republicans May Prevail
The Supreme Court's decision on Tuesday rolling back longstanding limits on the amount of money political parties can spend in coordination with individual candidates is set to make political parties far more impactful in the 2026 midterms.What can parties and donors do now that they couldn't do before?The official party committees will no longer have to go through the process of having a firewalled independent expenditure wing that cannot coordinate with candidates on strategy.They needed these because, formerly, spending coordinated between the candidates and party committees was capped by federal law, which meant that parties could only spend more than that through independent expenditures.This change allows the party committees to use their money in more ways, and to work more in lockstep with candidates, according to strategists who spoke with ABC News.Additionally, the decision could lead to cheaper ads.Candidates committees get access to a discounted rate, the "Lowest Unit Charge" (LUC) for television advertisements. Before the ruling, political committees and outside groups would have to pay more money for the same ad reservations. Now, they will not have to, and can coordinate even more closely on messaging and strategy at the lower rate. The U.S. Supreme Court, on the day justices have issued orders, in Washington, D.C., June 29, 2026.Cheney Orr/ReutersBecause individual donors can annually give more to parties than individual candidates, more money may now be available for, and directed to, television advertisements.Why might Republicans benefit more than Democrats from the decision, at least in the short term? In a memo obtained by ABC News, the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), which works to elect Republicans to the Senate, outlined how they feel the ruling is set to help them more than Democrats."The NRSC can spend without limit in direct coordination with all Senate campaigns on all expenditures. Historically, most NRSC advertising was produced and distributed independently -- it could not be informed by strategic conversations with the campaign about message, targeting, timing, or creative. Those restrictions are now gone," the memo to NRSC supporters and allies said.The committee also made the argument that while the ruling applies to both parties, "the practical impact is asymmetric. This cycle, the Republican party committees vastly outraised our Democrat counterparts, and the more a committee raises, the more it benefits from unlimited coordinated spending at preferential rates," the memo says.The Republican National Committee has more than $125 million in its reserves, according to the most recent campaign disclosures. The Democratic National Committee disclosures showed the party has less than $15 million on hand and is more than $18 million in debt, recent campaign disclosures show.In this July 18, 2024, file photo, Republican presidential nominee, former President Donald Trump and members of the Trump family look on after Trump officially accepted the Republican presidential nomination on the fourth day of the Republican National Convention at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.Leon Neal/Getty Images, FILEWhen asked about the party's fundraising challenges, Democrats have pointed to strong fundraising numbers from individual candidates and campaigns, and the party's successes in the off-year elections in 2025. Popular ReadsGOP strategist Doug Heye told ABC News, "The GOP has been working on this for years and is poised to take a quick advantage. It's not clear if the Democrats, who were in denial about this, will be able to do the same."Sawyer Hackett, a Democratic strategist, said he feels the Democratic Party "has been caught flat footed and not put in serious effort to fundraise ahead of midterms," Hackett said, while now the Republican Party can more fully use the money it has stockpiled immediately. How might Democrats respond?They may have opposed the successful lawsuit, but Democrats will now scramble to adjust to the new landscape. Alex Hoffman, a Democratic donor adviser, told ABC News that Democrats need to continue courting high net worth donors, even as many in the party continue to speak out against the influence of billionaires in politics. "You can't shake your fist at the other side and just keep saying that we're winning the moral high ground argument, but then continue losing elections. ... You can make billionaires public enemy number one all you want, but in the end we need them, we cannot be the party that relies solely on $1 donors, because we will not win elections," Hoffman said. In this Aug. 22, 2024, file photo, Democratic presidential candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris waves to the crowd after speaking on stage during the final day of the Democratic National Convention at the United Center in Chicago.Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images, FILEShekar Narisimhan, chairman and founder of the Democratic Party-aligned AAPI Victory Fund, told ABC News that the decision allows the group, which is a hybrid PAC with some ability to donate to candidates and committees directly, to spend more effectively. AAPI Victory Fund also has a 501(c)(4) arm, which Narisimhan said often does a lot of preelection work unrelated to specific candidates, such as educating voters and encouraging them to turn out; "a lot of the work will shift even more into our (c)(4)," he said, which will allow the group to have more impact on galvanizing voters and playing its own role ahead of candidates being set.One Democratic strategist told ABC News that the decision could help the DNC's fundraising, since the party -- and congressional committee's funds -- can now go farther. "This puts a bigger spotlight on [DNC Chairman] Ken Martin" and the committee's fundraising efforts, the strategist, who is advising multiple congressional campaigns, told ABC News.ABC News' Benjamin Siegel contributed to this report.
