Trump and Netanyahu: A Hidden Rift That Could Change Everything
Reports of a growing divide between President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are gaining momentum amid the drawn-out U.S.-Israeli war against Iran and its regional allies.The rift is real. On multiple occasions, Trump has publicly urged Netanyahu to avoid further escalation, and recently confirmed at least one heated exchange in which he rebuked the Israeli leader for pressing ahead with military operations in Lebanon that Iran considers a red line in the fragile negotiations between Washington and Tehran.When Israeli strikes against a suspected Hezbollah stronghold in Beirut prompted Iranian retaliation, Trump again appealed unsuccessfully for restraint from his ally. The two-day exchange ended Monday with visible signs of tension between the U.S. and Israel.Yet analysts and former officials caution against interpreting the latest disagreements as evidence of a fundamental falling out between two leaders who have often found themselves at odds tactically while remaining aligned strategically."I would not bet against the Netanyahu-Trump relationship," Dan Rothem, senior policy analyst at Israel Policy Forum who has briefed U.S. and Israeli officials on regional affairs, told Newsweek. "They have repeatedly proven to be more aligned and coordinated than many observers assume. While disagreements come up, they usually overcome them and come out with a shared understanding of challenges and approaches."It's not a matter of capability, but one of will for the White House. Trump, like "any U.S. president," Rothem argued, "has significant leverage over Israel.""The real question is whether Trump sees using that leverage as serving his interests," he said. "So far, he has applied some pressure on issues related to Lebanon and Iran, but has largely avoided a direct clash with Netanyahu, whom he understands both strategically and politically."Getty ImagesWhere the Gaps LieIt's not the first time that tensions between Trump and Netanyahu have simmered to the surface.The U.S. leader entered his second non-consecutive term last year pushing Israel toward a ceasefire with the Palestinian Hamas movement that sparked first sparked the regional war with its deadly October 2023 surprise attack. Trump offered little resistance when Israel ultimately reignited the conflict in Gaza following a collapse in negotiations, though fractures then, too, appeared.More dramatic was Trump's response to Israel's bombing of a Hamas meeting in Qatar amid a second push for peace last September. Netanyahu offered a rare apology as Trump looked on directly in the Oval Office, and signed on to a new peace deal shortly after.The Iran challenge has proven more complex. Trump, while engaged in negotiations with the Islamic Republic, did not protest Israel's decision to unleash an unprecedented campaign of strikes against the Islamic Republic, with the U.S. even joining in to destroy three heavily fortified nuclear facilities.What followed, however, was one of his most striking directives against further Israeli action, reportedly leading to dozens of Israeli warplanes turning back in what would have been a final round of strikes for the so-called 12-Day War.Reports of new discontent emerged earlier this year as Netanyahu campaigned for direct U.S. action following Iran's crackdown against protests and new talks between Washington and Tehran. Trump ultimately signed on, supporting a series of strikes in late February that killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and scores of key commanders, while further devastating Iranian military sites.But the conflict has not led to the same kind of quick victory witnessed in June. Iran has not only weathered the intervention so far but has also imposed major costs in its stranglehold on oil and gas trade through the Strait of Hormuz and creating major pressure for the White House.Dennis Ross, a longtime U.S. diplomat who served in a number of Middle East-related State Department positions, argued "there is a real divergence" between the two leaders "because they have different interests.""President Trump wants to open the Straits of Hormuz and end the war. You don’t hear him talking about the Iranian ballistic missile or proxy threat anymore," Ross told Newsweek. "Even on the Iranian nuclear program, he may emphasize that Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon, but his criteria for ensuring that are far less stringent than Prime Minister Netanyahu's."Ross pointed out that Netanyahu—whose nickname is Bibi—"wants all the enriched uranium to be shipped out or destroyed," not merely the highly enriched uranium, and "to ensure that all the nuclear infrastructure and facilities related to the fuel cycle should not be rebuilt." "Apart from the nuclear issue, Bibi is focused on the ballistic missile inventories and production facilities and the proxies," Ross said. "President Trump may want the war to end, but Netanyahu does not want it to end before much more damage is done to the Iranian ballistic missile and drone inventories, the tunnels where large numbers were preserved, and the capacity for the Iranians to reconstitute their missile production capability is made even more difficult."Ultimately, Ross expressed that Trump "absolutely has the capability to rein in Prime Minister Netanyahu," point to key events over the past year that demonstrated this capability."As for the question of if President Trump has such leverage, why does he not exercise it more—he does it when he believes it is in his interests to do so," Ross said. "He defines those circumstances narrowly but we have seen him act."Fight for SurvivalDaniel Shapiro, former U.S. ambassador to Israel now serving as senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, outlined a similar state of affairs when it comes to the divide between Trump and Netanyahu."Trump and Netanyahu's interests have diverged considerably since the start of the war, as have the United States' and Israel's," Shapiro told Newsweek. "Trump wants the war to end and is focused on ensuring the Strait of Hormuz is open and he can claim some credible steps to set back Iran's nuclear program. He also does not want fighting in Lebanon to disrupt the talks with Iran.""Netanyahu would prefer to keep fighting and weakening the regime in Iran, does not believe that any good nuclear deal is possible, and wants to be able to respond to Hezbollah's attacks against Israel with strong strikes in Lebanon," Shapiro said. "That's a pretty big rift. But Trump will make the decision when the war in Iran ends, and Netanyahu is going to have to accept it."But that would come at a significant cost for Netanyahu, whose own future lies in the balance between credible wartime achievements and remaining in Trump's good favor."The bigger political risk in this rift is Netanyahu's," Shapiro said. "He has sold himself to Israeli voters as the protector of Israel's security and as Donald Trump's best friend, given Trump's popularity in Israel.""Now he faces the prospect of an election campaign when Israel is constrained not to fight it's still dangerous enemies, and it is clear that his relationship with Trump is under stress and compromising Israel's sovereign decisions about its security," he added. "It's a vicious vice he finds himself in that undercuts his main selling points to Israeli voters."Netanyahu's woes are not limited to the political sphere, either. He faces an ongoing trial on corruption charges, along with several other scandals with the potential to translate into legal challenges.Trump, who has also faced multiple criminal indictments in recent years, has come to Netanyahu's aid, something of which he reportedly reminded the Israeli premier during their tense phone call last week.On its surface, the episode appeared to confirm predictions of a growing clash between the two men. But while "their political incentives are not the same," with a fateful election for Netanyahu looming, Rothem argued, both will more than likely seek to find ways to capitalize on the buzz around their apparent dispute."It is still too early to know whether a public show of distance between the two would help either politically," Rothem said. "But Netanyahu, and likely Trump as well, are highly attuned to political sentiment and will recognize any advantage well before many of their opponents do."Iran Has a Say TooWhether or not Trump and Netanyahu may be truly headed toward a greater schism, their mutual foe may play an influential role in the volatile dynamic, especially if diplomacy advances."Ironically, the future of the relationship may ultimately depend on Iran," Rothem said. "If Tehran remains confrontational in its dealings with Washington, Trump and Netanyahu are likely to stay aligned. If Iran moves toward a real agreement with the U.S., that could become the most serious test of the relationship between the two leaders."Hassan Beheshtipour, an Iranian international affairs analyst, saw several ways through which the U.S. could lean more heavily on Israel, an endeavor he argued may prove consequential in determining whether or not peace can be preserved in the long term."The United States has the power to restrain Israel—for example, by halting arms sales or not vetoing UN Security Council resolutions—if it possesses the necessary political will," Beheshtipour told Newsweek. "The U.S. could explicitly declare that the full implementation of the Abraham Accords and any new normalization agreements in the region (including with Saudi Arabia) are conditional on Israel halting its attacks on Lebanon, Syria, Iran, and Iraq, as well as stopping its expansionist policies in the West Bank," Beheshtipour said. "Such leverage is far more powerful than anything Washington has used to date.""Unless the U.S. uses this leverage, any agreement with Iran will remain fragile, because Israel has both the means and the motivation to undermine it," he added. "In that case, not only Lebanon but the entire region will be exposed to a new round of instability."
