Susan Collins Faces Her Toughest Battle Yet: What Scandals Are Shaking Up Maine's Senate Race?
Republican Senator Susan Collins and Democrat Graham Platner are set to face off in a competitive election campaign in Maine's U.S. Senate race in November after securing their parties' nominations on Tuesday.The Maine race presents Democrats with perhaps their best opportunity to flip a Senate seat in the 2026 midterm elections in a state that backed former Vice President Kamala Harris by about seven points in 2024. But recent scandals involving Platner have upended the race, raising concerns among some Democrats about his electability. Collins has managed to win reelection in challenging environments in the past due to her personal popularity and bipartisan credentials, but Democrats believe she may face her toughest reelection yet because of President Donald Trump's declining approval rating.Collins ran unopposed for the Republican nomination, while Platner won the Democratic nomination with 75 percent of the vote at the time the race was called. He defeated candidates David Costello and Governor Janet Mills, who suspended her campaign in April but remained on the ballot.Mills said in a statement obtained by Newsweek that she has always been inspired to "never stop fighting" for the people of Maine and that she was "incredibly proud" of what her administration has accomplished."I will continue to fight with everything I have to improve the lives and livelihoods of Maine people," Mills said....What Do The Latest Polls Show?Early polling points to a close race, with some recent surveys showing a dead heat between the two candidates. Platner has presented himself as a political outsider and change candidate at a time when Democrats are fired up—but Collins is likely to rely on her personal popularity to win, while also calling attention to Platner’s personal scandals.Notably, Maine uses a ranked-choice system, where voters rank candidates in order of preference. If no candidate wins an outright majority, the candidate with the lowest support is eliminated, and their voters are reallocated to their second choices. No independents have made the ballot, so either Collins or Platner is likely to win a majority, barring a major write-in campaign.The latest poll from Tavern Research, which surveyed 1,642 adults from June 5-8, showed Platner up two points on 51 percent, compared to Collins' 49 percent. A Fabrizio, Lee & Associates poll, which surveyed 800 likely voters from June 1-3, showed Collins and Platner tied at 46 percent.Earlier polls gave Platner a more sizable advantage.A Public Policy Polling survey showed Platner up four points on 49 percent, while Collins received 45 percent. It surveyed 670 registered voters from June 2-3. A University of New Hampshire poll, which surveyed 1,250 likely voters from May 21-25, showed Platner up nine points, at 51 percent, to Collins' 42 percent.Meanwhile, a Pan Atlantic SMS Group poll, which surveyed 827 likely voters from May 8-18, showed Platner with 48 percent and Collins with 41 percent.Collins' supporters have pointed out that she trailed 2020 Democratic candidate Sara Gideon in nearly every poll in her last reelection bid but went on to win by just under 51 percent of the vote.It is unclear whether there will be a similar polling error this year, but that could still be a worrying sign for Democrats who have been increasingly optimistic about their chances.Maine is generally seen as a more difficult state to poll because of its independent-minded electorate and large rural population, as well as its use of ranked-choice voting. Election forecasters, including the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, view the race as a toss-up.What Do Prediction Markets Show?Prediction markets favor Democrats to flip the seat in November. Kalshi gives Democrats a 58 percent chance of winning, while Polymarket gives Democrats a 62 percent chance. Platner’s chances fell following the latest scandals involving his past relationships, but Collins still trails in the prediction markets.Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes and current events, aggregating real‑money wagers into probability estimates. Prices fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends. They measure trader sentiment at a given moment but do not always accurately predict the future.Graham Platner Scandals ExplainedPlatner’s candidacy has drawn increasing scrutiny after The New York Times made allegations about his behavior in past romantic relationships.One former girlfriend of Platner's, Lyndsey Fifield, a conservative who has worked for Republican campaigns, alleged that Platner had engaged in physically threatening behavior during their relationship over a decade ago. She alleged that Platner twisted her arm behind her back during an argument, shoved her into a bedroom and blocked her from exiting.Fifield told the outlet that Platner "never hit me, he never punched me." The Times said it could not independently corroborate the incidents alleged by Fifield.Platner has strongly denied those accusations, saying allegations involving physicality are "simply not true" and describing them as politically motivated.The Times interviewed six of his former girlfriends, three of whom said they support his candidacy.Days earlier, The Wall Street Journal reported that Platner’s wife, Amy Gertner, reportedly informed Platner campaign aides during an internal vetting exercise in August that he had sent sexually explicit text messages to several women. The disclosure was intended to ensure the information did not catch the campaign off guard.Genevieve McDonald, former state legislator and Platner campaign political director until October, who had been cited as bringing the information forward, previously told Newsweek: "I can confirm the details of what has been reported and what Graham Platner’s campaign has already admitted to on the record, that he was sexting multiple women while married and that the campaign tried to assess that as an election vulnerability when his wife brought it to the campaign’s attention."Platner has dismissed the reports as "gossip" and has acknowledged strains in his marriage, though he framed them as resolved."Amy and I went through something hard—because of me. We did the work, and I’m grateful for her every hour of every day," he said in a written statement released Sunday.Gertner said in a video posted by Platner's campaign late Saturday that they have a "great marriage" and that "being married is hard."Platner earlier faced controversy over the revelation that he had a tattoo resembling the Totenkopf, or "death’s head," a symbol adopted by the Nazi SS. He has apologized and previously told Newsweek: "I absolutely would not have gone through life having this on my chest if I knew that—and to insinuate that I did is disgusting. I am already planning to get this removed."Past Reddit posts have also drawn scrutiny. In one, Platner said he "became older and became a communist." In another, in response to a person who posted that white people "aren't as racist or stupid as Trump thinks," he replied: "Living in white rural America, I’m afraid to tell you they actually are."He told Politico last year: "I made dumb jokes and picked fights. But of course I’m not a socialist. I’m a small business owner, a Marine Corps veteran and a retired s*** poster."Platner's Victory Speech: 'People Can Change'Speaking to supporters on Tuesday, Platner said votes in the primary were "not for me but a vision of a life in Maine that you can afford, a life of dignity and a government that actually serves its people." He acknowledged the controversies that rocked his primary campaign, saying he would work to earn the trust of voters."If you believe, as I do, that we can change our politics and change our country, then you must also believe that people can change.And the reason I believe that is because I have lived it," he said.He later added: "Any of those who feel let down or disappointed or disillusioned, it is my job to earn your trust, faith and support. And I will spend every day of this campaign and if I have the privilege, every day in the United States Senate doing exactly that."Platner said: "I've made mistakes in my life, mistakes that I regret, that I live with, that I continue to learn from. And I'm still far from perfect. But every day I wake up and I try to be a little bit better and a little bit kinder than I was the day before. If you give me the chance, I will be a senator for the people who cannot afford to buy a senator."Jim Messina, who led former President Barack Obama's 2012 reelection campaign, said "a star is born" after Platner's speech.Can Democrats Replace Platner as Nominee?Maine election law provides a mechanism for replacing a general-election nominee after the primary. Under Title 21-A, §374-A, a political party may name a new candidate if its nominee withdraws by 5 p.m. on the second Monday in July, which falls on July 13 in 2026.If that happens, the party then has until 5 p.m. on July 27 to select a replacement nominee. The process is handled internally by the party.That means Democrats could effectively reset their Senate campaign in midsummer if Platner withdraws voluntarily by the legal deadline. He has not indicated any plans to do so despite unease from some Democrats over his candidacy. In practice, the law gives the party roughly two weeks to choose a replacement and regroup ahead of the fall campaign.McDonald, his former political director, wrote in an opinion piece published by The Washington Post on Monday that she believes Platner “exhibits a pattern of dishonest behavior that is impossible to ignore.Other Democrats have defended him."Graham Platner is gonna win because he has connected with Mainers on what they really care about: How this country can work for them, not just the wealthy. He’ll win because he’s not part of the Washington establishment. If I voted in Maine he’d have my support, no question," Senator Tina Smith, a Minnesota Democrat, wrote on X.In a statement obtained by Newsweek, DNC Chair Ken Martin praised Platner for building a grassroots movement that prioritizes working Mainers over corporations and the ultra wealthy. "While Susan Collins cuts healthcare, increases everyday costs, undercuts workers, and rubberstamps Donald Trump’s extreme agenda, Graham will focus on making life more affordable and delivering for communities across Maine. The DNC is ready to help organize and mobilize voters to defeat Susan Collins, take back the Senate, and prioritize the concerns of working families," Martin said. Trump's Impact on Maine ElectionMidterms are typically a referendum on the party in the White House, and Trump remains unpopular in Maine.The latest Pan Atlantic SMS Poll from May found that only 38 percent of Mainers view Trump favorably, compared to 62 percent who view him unfavorably. An Emerson College poll, which surveyed 1,075 adults from March 21-23, found that 39 percent of Mainers approve of Trump, while 57 percent disapprove of his job performance.Trump has never been particularly popular in Maine. He lost the state by 7 points in 2024, 9 points in 2020 and 3 points in 2016. While he has made inroads in the rural, northern part of the state, cities like Portland and the more liberal southern region have powered Democratic victories in the Pine Tree State.Collins has managed to win in the past due to her own personal popularity. She is unique in the Senate as the only Republican representing a state that routinely votes for Democrats in presidential races. There are no longer any Democrats representing states that routinely support Republicans on the presidential level after West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin’s retirement and Jon Tester’s loss in Montana in the 2024 election cycle.Her vote to confirm Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh took a hit on her approval rating, which fell from +21 points in the first quarter of 2018 to -12 points by the fourth quarter of 2019, according to Morning Consult polling. She was able to overcome that approval in 2020.Democrats View Maine as Must-Win StateMaine, due to its ongoing blue lean in other races, is a top target for Democrats as they hope to flip control of the Senate, where Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority. Democrats must flip four seats for a majority.In addition to Maine, North Carolina's seat vacated by retiring Thom Tillis is viewed as a top flip target in a state Trump won by only 3 points in 2024.There are no other Harris-won or single-digit Trump seats up for grabs, so Democrats must target more conservative states like Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas to flip additional seats.
